NAR Just Slashed Its Home Sales Growth Forecast From 14% to 4% - Does That Mean McKinney's Price Recovery Is Stalling Too?

NAR just slashed its home sales growth forecast from 14% to 4% - does that mean McKinney's price recovery is stalling too? Not necessarily. A national forecast revision reflects a slower national pace, but McKinney's recovery has its own local drivers that don't move in lockstep with NAR's headline number.

When a trade association like the National Association of Realtors revises its projections this dramatically, headlines tend to frame it as bad news for anyone hoping home values keep climbing. But forecasts like this one are built from a blend of mortgage rate assumptions, national inventory trends, and consumer sentiment surveys - not from street-level data in McKinney, Prosper, or Allen. That matters because Collin County has been working through its own distinct supply-and-demand story over the past two years, one shaped by new construction pipelines, relocation demand tied to North Texas job growth, and a local price correction that started well before this national forecast was even written. A slower national sales growth number doesn't automatically translate into flat or falling prices here. It could simply mean fewer transactions nationally while local markets with strong fundamentals - like much of Collin County - continue recovering at their own pace. This post breaks down what the NAR revision actually measures, why national numbers and McKinney numbers can diverge, and what signals you should actually be watching if you're trying to time a purchase or a sale in this market. Whether you're sitting on a listing in Stonebridge Ranch, watching new builds go up in Trinity Falls, or just trying to decide whether now is the right moment to make a move, understanding the difference between a national headline and your specific street is the key to making a smart decision instead of a reactive one.

What the NAR Forecast Revision Actually Measures

NAR's forecast tracks projected growth in the number of existing-home sales nationwide, not home price appreciation itself. Cutting that growth projection from 14% to 4% means NAR now expects far fewer additional transactions next year than it previously thought - largely tied to mortgage rate expectations and buyer hesitancy across the country.

That's an important distinction. Sales volume and home prices can move independently of each other. A market can see fewer total sales while prices still hold steady or even rise, simply because the homes that do sell are priced appropriately and sellers aren't panicking into discounts.

Why National Numbers and McKinney, TX Numbers Don't Always Match

National forecasts are an average of hundreds of metro areas with wildly different conditions - shrinking Rust Belt cities, overbuilt Sun Belt metros, and tight coastal markets all get blended into one number. McKinney and the broader Collin County market have characteristics that set it apart from that national blend:

• Continued relocation demand from employers expanding across North Texas
• A new construction pipeline that's been adjusting incentives rather than slashing prices outright
• A local price correction that already happened over the past couple of years, meaning McKinney isn't starting from an inflated peak the way some national markets are

If you've been watching builder behavior closely, you already know incentives have been a bigger lever than price cuts - something we broke down in detail when looking at how Green Brick's shifting incentives are affecting new construction deals in Trinity Falls and Craig Ranch.

What's Actually Driving McKinney's Price Recovery

McKinney's recovery has been less about a flood of buyers and more about sellers recalibrating expectations after a stretch of slower activity. Homes priced realistically for their neighborhood and condition have continued to find buyers, while overpriced listings sit regardless of what national forecasts say.

That pattern shows up clearly at the neighborhood level. Some pockets of Collin County are seeing multiple-offer situations while comparable homes just a few miles away sit for weeks - a dynamic we explored in our look at why Stonebridge Ranch listings are outperforming Craig Ranch listings right now. That gap has far more to do with local pricing strategy than it does with a national sales forecast.

What This Means for Your Street and Your Price Point

A national forecast revision is a useful backdrop, but it's not a substitute for knowing what's happening on your specific block. Two homes a mile apart in McKinney can be experiencing completely different markets depending on price point, school zoning perception, lot size, and how long similar homes have taken to sell nearby.

Before you assume a slower national outlook means you should wait to sell, or that it signals a buying opportunity, it's worth looking at actual local absorption rates, days-on-market trends, and recent closed comps in your specific neighborhood - whether that's Eldorado, Craig Ranch, Stonebridge Ranch, or a newer section of Trinity Falls.

FAQ

Does a lower national sales forecast mean home prices will drop?

Not necessarily. The NAR forecast measures expected transaction volume, not price direction. Prices in a given market can hold or even rise with fewer total sales if supply stays balanced.

Is McKinney's housing market still recovering?

Many parts of McKinney and Collin County have shown steady improvement as sellers adjust pricing to match buyer demand, though the pace varies significantly by neighborhood and price range.

Should I wait to sell my McKinney home because of this forecast?

A national forecast shouldn't be the deciding factor on its own. Local inventory levels, comparable sales, and buyer activity in your specific neighborhood matter far more to your timing decision.

See What This Means for Your Street

National headlines make for easy reading, but they rarely tell you what's actually happening three blocks from your front door. See what the revised national forecast actually means for your specific McKinney street and price point. Reach out to Jane Clark with Keller Williams McKinney for a clear, local read on where your neighborhood in McKinney, TX and Collin County actually stands.